Market Risk · rolling historical diagnostic
Loading historical data…
Current percentile—
Low-risk cut—
High-risk cut—
obsila indicators are designed as descriptive research tools. This page documents the inputs, transformations, weights and historical diagnostics used by Market Risk and Market Regime so the dashboard can be evaluated rather than treated as a black box.
A composite 0–1 score intended to describe how extended or compressed Bitcoin appears relative to its own history. The component weights remain explicit and stable; v1.1 changes the dashboard labels so Low / Moderate / High are calibrated to the historical distribution of the composite rather than arbitrary fixed score cut-offs. It is not a probability of loss and it is not a trading signal.
| Historical calibration | Dashboard label | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| At or below the 33rd percentile cut | Low Risk | Historically compressed / less extended conditions under this model. |
| Between the 33rd and 67th percentile cuts | Moderate Risk | Intermediate conditions relative to the model's own history. |
| At or above the 67th percentile cut | High Risk | Historically extended conditions under this model. |
A three-component state model. Trend, stablecoin liquidity and volatility each receive +1, 0 or −1. v1.1 uses a symmetric five-state mapping so a mildly negative composite is labelled Defensive rather than immediately Risk-Off, and requires three consecutive observations before the displayed state changes in the historical diagnostic. This reduces abrupt one-observation flips without hiding the underlying component readings.
| Component | Positive | Neutral | Negative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend | BTC > 1.03 × MA200 | Within ±3% of MA200 | BTC < 0.97 × MA200 |
| Liquidity | 30D stablecoin supply > +1% | −1% to +1% | 30D stablecoin supply < −1% |
| Volatility | 30D / 90D vol < 0.90 | 0.90–1.10 | 30D / 90D vol > 1.10 |
| Composite score | State |
|---|---|
| +2 to +3 | Risk-On |
| +1 | Constructive |
| 0 | Cautious |
| −1 | Defensive |
| −2 to −3 | Risk-Off |
Loading historical data…
Loading historical data…
| Dataset | Role | Target refresh | Fallback / treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin historical price | Regression, cycles, risk, trend and volatility | Daily | Cloudflare edge cache; stale data retained temporarily if upstream is unavailable. |
| Current BTC / ETH market snapshot | Price, market cap and short-horizon changes | 4 hours | Primary source plus secondary public market-data fallback. |
| Stablecoin circulating supply | Liquidity component of Market Regime | 12 hours | Last cached series retained when necessary. |
| Bitcoin network statistics | Network context | 4–12 hours | Not used in Market Risk or Market Regime v1.1. |
Regression bands and percentile diagnostics describe the sample used. They do not establish future price ranges or expected returns.
The component mappings and weights are explicit but provisional. v1.1 improves calibration and state symmetry, but remains intended to be tested, challenged and revised rather than treated as immutable.
Market Regime can only be evaluated where Bitcoin and stablecoin histories overlap. Backtest coverage is therefore shorter than the Bitcoin-only Market Risk diagnostic.